Thursday, April 30, 2009

Confirmation Bias

We often look for data to support our proposed solution. "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives " mentions this in relation to us picking only the random events that support our hypotheses. We also will plan experiments that support our existing hypothesis instead of looking for ways to disprove it.

The best solutions are those which can't be made to fail as opposed to those which need the stars aligned (or maybe that special operator) to work.

Psychologist's also have a term for this as I heard on the radio this morning. "Magical Thinking" or something like that. We tend only to remember what we want and not look at the data impartially.

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